About 240 million people are eligible to vote in the 2024 election in the U.S., but only a relatively small number of them will likely decide who becomes the next president.
These people are residents of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These seven states make up the group of so-called “swing states,” meaning their residents are quite divided between the two candidates, and either one could emerge victorious on Tuesday.
• Arizona
Electoral votes: 11 of 538
2020 winner: Biden by 10,000 votes
The Democrats won the presidency in 2020 with the support of Arizona, which voted by a slightly larger margin for Joe Biden. It was the first time since the 1990s that a Democrat carried the state’s delegates.
What do the latest polls say?
– Harris – 45%
– Trump – 49%
• Georgia
Electoral college votes: 16 of 53
2020 winner: Biden by 13,000 votes
Democrat Joe Biden won in Georgia in 2020 by 0.2% over Donald Trump. It was the narrowest victory margin in the country that year.
One-third of Georgia’s population is African American – one of the largest proportions of Black residents in the U.S. – and this demographic group is believed to have been crucial for Biden flipping the state to the Democrats in 2020.
Kamala Harris hopes to gain the support of this demographic group, which has already reported some disillusionment with the Biden administration.
What do the latest polls say?
– Harris – 48%
– Trump – 47%
• Michigan
Electoral votes: 15 of 538
2020 winner: Biden by 150,000 votes
The Great Lakes state has chosen the winning presidential candidate in the last two elections. Despite supporting Biden in 2020.
Notably, Michigan has the highest proportion of Arab Americans in the country — a demographic group whose support for Biden was at risk. But Harris has taken a tougher stance on the Gaza War and Israel’s positioning.
What do the latest polls say?
– Harris – 47%
– Trump – 47%
• Nevada
Electoral votes: 6 of 538
2020 winner: Biden by 34,000 votes
The Silver State voted for the Democrats in the last elections, but there are signs of a possible Republican turnaround.
Trump had a wide lead over Biden in early polls, but recent averages indicate that the lead has narrowed since Harris secured the nomination. Democrats hoped that a candidate with greater appeal to younger and more diverse voters would close the gap.
Both candidates are competing to win the state’s considerable Latino population.
What do the latest polls say?
– Harris – 49%
– Trump – 46%
• North Carolina
Electoral votes: 16 of 538
2020 winner: Trump by 74,000 votes
Polls show that the race has tightened in the state since Harris took over the Democratic ticket.
Trump won in North Carolina in 2020, but by just over 70,000 votes, which has further raised Democrats’ hopes that this “purple” state (which can vote red or blue) might help them win this year.
What do the latest polls say?
– Harris – 48%
– Trump – 46%
• Pennsylvania
Electoral votes: 19 of 538
2020 winner: Biden by 82,000 votes
The Keystone State is considered by some experts to be the biggest prize on the American electoral map. The state has been a target for both Harris and Trump. Both candidates and their running mates have made over 50 appearances there since mid-July.
Pennsylvania proved to be crucial in the 2020 election when it supported Biden.
What do the latest polls say?
– Harris – 48%
– Trump – 48%
• Wisconsin
Electoral college votes: 10 of 538
2020 winner: Biden by 21,000 votes
The state chose the winning presidential candidate in 2016 and 2020, by a margin of just over 20,000 votes on each occasion.
Trump described this state as “very important… if we win Wisconsin, we win everything.” The Republican National Convention was held in Milwaukee.
What do the latest polls say?
– Harris – 49%
– Trump – 47%
Source: BBC News and The New York Times