Brazil is capable of zeroing out greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, says scientist Carlos Nobre. In the opening lecture of the 5th National Environment Conference, Nobre spoke about climate change and previewed data from an ongoing study that confirms the country can achieve the goal by that date.
According to Nobre, transitions are needed to a 100% clean energy matrix, carbon-neutral agriculture, negative emissions from proper land use, and large-scale restoration.
“Brazil has the full potential for 100% clean and renewable energy and, by 2040, much more carbon-neutral agriculture and large-scale forest restoration. Our study indicates that we can remove up to 600 million tons of CO2 per year starting in 2040 by restoring the biomes,” says the climatologist.
The scientist highlighted that the effects of these measures, beyond addressing the climate urgency, could ensure better quality of life for populations.
“In case you don’t know, burning fossil fuels generates pollutants in all cities around the world. How many people die due to urban pollution worldwide? Six to seven million people per year.”
Carlos Nobre noted that in 2022, Brazil was the fifth largest emitter on the planet, releasing 11 tons of greenhouse gases per person per year. Compared to other major emitters, China emitted 10.5 tons per person at the time, India 2 tons, and the United States 16.5 tons per person per year.
Consequences
Without more emphatic measures to address the climate urgency, Carlos Nobre shows there will be severe consequences, such as coral bleaching, which puts 25% of all ocean biodiversity at risk, intensification of global warming, with indications of the disappearance of 99% of species if the planet exceeds 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
Other disastrous consequences highlighted by the climatologist include the thawing of lands with solid water, responsible for retaining a gigantic amount of methane and carbon dioxide.
“If we exceed 2 degrees, we will release more than 200 billion tons of methane and carbon dioxide. Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas, 30 times stronger than carbon dioxide,” he explains.
Amazon
In Brazil, the risk of the Amazon reaching a tipping point is increasingly greater, says Carlos Nobre. “The entire southern Amazon has a dry period four to five weeks longer, with drier air and a significant increase in tree mortality.”
In a region involving southeast and south Pará and northern Mato Grosso, the forest has already become a carbon emission hotspot, failing to provide the ecosystem service of capturing these gases. “In the 1990s, the Amazon removed more than 1.5 billion tons of CO2, and this region is getting very close to the tipping point,” he reinforces.
Droughts are more severe, with more intense phenomena like El Niño and a warmer Atlantic, making the Amazon drier.
All this impacts the flying rivers, responsible for bringing rain to much of the country. “Just the forest in the indigenous territories of the Brazilian Amazon can explain up to 30% of the flying rivers. At least 40% of the rain in the Cerrado and South Brazil and 15% in the Southeast depends on the flying rivers,” he emphasizes.
All these already observed impacts can result in a drastic change of scenario in the country. “If deforestation reaches 20 to 25% and global warming hits 2.5ºC, we will lose at least 50% of the Amazon, maybe even 70%.” says Nobre.
The scientist stresses that the Cerrado and Caatinga are also very close to the tipping point, which implies more heat waves and health risks for humans, in addition to more extreme weather events and pandemics originating from imbalanced forests.
Carlos Nobre also pointed out paths for cities to adapt to the challenges of reducing socioeconomic inequalities and leaving a sustainable legacy for future generations.
Source: Agência Brasil