The presidential election is approaching, and you have certainly heard about how important swing states will be in determining who will be the next president of the United States.
Swing states, also known as battleground states, are states that can “swing” to either Democratic or Republican candidates depending on the election. Due to their potential to be won by any candidate, political parties often spend a disproportionate amount of time and campaign resources to win these states.
Although there is no universal definition of what identifies a swing state, they are characterized by having small voting margins and by different political parties winning over time. Since 1992, 30 states have voted for the candidate of the opposing party from the previous election at least once. And 26 states have been won by less than three points in any presidential election since 1992.
What are the current swing states?
The states that voted for current Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020 and former Republican President Donald Trump in 2016 are often highlighted as swing states. These states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Tight margins in the races also indicate that a state could have been won by either party. In 2020, seven states were won with a margin of three percentage points or less. These states included the five mentioned above, plus North Carolina and Nevada.
Which states have historically been swing states?
The political realignment from presidential election to presidential election — such as from Trump to Biden — can be a way to identify swing states. Years in which a president is running for re-election tend to have fewer states changing parties, but since 1992, every presidential election has had at least some states changing party affiliation.
Of the last eight presidential elections, the 1992 election had the highest number of states that changed political parties. With 22 states changing from the previous election, it is often cited as a year of political realignment, where the defeat of George H.W. Bush by Bill Clinton transformed many states that historically voted Republican (including California, Colorado, Maryland, among others) into states that reliably voted for Democrats in the next decade.
No presidential election since 1992 has had so many states voting for the presidential candidate of a different political party.
Source: USA Facts