Former President Donald J. Trump is dominating the race for the Republican presidential nomination. In second place is Governor Ron DeSantis, according to the first poll conducted by The New York Times/Siena College regarding the 2024 campaign.
Trump, who has 57% of the voting intentions, has decisive advantages in almost all demographic groups and regions and across all ideological wings of the party. It seems that most Republican voters dismiss any concerns about the former president’s indictments. He leads by a wide margin among men and women, younger and older voters, moderates and conservatives, those who attended college and those who did not, and in cities, suburbs, and rural areas.
The survey shows that some of the central arguments of DeSantis’s campaign – that he is more electable than Trump and that he would govern more effectively – have so far failed to excite. The Florida governor is in second place, with 17% of the voting intentions.
All other candidates in the race, including former Vice President Mike Pence, have not surpassed 3% of the voting intentions.
The poll comes less than six months before the first contest of the 2024 primaries. But in an era where politics has been defined by its volatility, Trump’s legal troubles – his trials are expected to overlap with the primary season – represent an especially unpredictable wild card.
Why is it so hard to defeat Trump?
In half a century of modern presidential primaries, no candidate who has outpaced their closest rival by at least 20 points at this stage has ever lost a party nomination.
Trump commands a seemingly unshakable base of loyal supporters, representing more than a third of the Republican electorate. It is true that, alone, their support is not enough for Trump to win the primaries. But it is large enough to make him extremely difficult to defeat.
The MAGA Base
It is populist. It is conservative. It is blue-collar. It is convinced that the nation is on the brink of disaster. It is exceptionally loyal to Donald Trump.
Members of the MAGA base represent 37% of the Republican electorate. They support Trump “strongly” in the Republican primaries and have a “very favorable” view of him.
And most importantly: The MAGA base does not support Trump despite his flaws. This electorate supports him because they do not believe any accusations against Trump and think he has no defects.
The Divided Republican Party
Another factor that ultimately benefits Trump is that the Party is divided. The rest of the Republican electorate can be split into two groups: (1) voters who may not love Trump, but remain open to him in the primaries and, in some cases, support him among the existing alternatives, and (2) voters who are unlikely to support Trump. They represent about a quarter of the primary electorate and say they are not considering him as an option in the primaries. In this group, the votes are spread among the candidates in the race.
Source: The New York Times