Last Saturday (June 1) marked the official start of the hurricane season in the Atlantic. Meteorologists are predicting an “extremely active” season, with some forecasting the highest number of storms ever recorded. These storms could endanger not only coastal areas but also regions further inland, especially during the months of August and September, the peak of the season.
Experts say that ocean waters with record temperatures and an expected transition in the climate pattern from El Niño to La Niña are driving the overloaded forecasts.
Although these are just predictions that may not come to fruition, authorities emphasize that residents should be prepared regardless.
Hurricanes are classified by the strength of their winds, but typically the deadliest characteristics are the rains and flooding – and this is not necessarily related to the intensity of a storm.
A hurricane risk report released Thursday (30) by CoreLogic, a real estate information and analytics company, estimates that more than 40 million properties, with a reconstruction value of over $13 billion, are at risk of wind and flood damage due to storms this hurricane season. The report highlighted the metropolitan areas of Miami, New York, and Houston as particularly vulnerable.
How many storms are being predicted?
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 17 to 25 tropical storms and eight to 13 hurricanes.
- Colorado State University is forecasting 23 tropical storms and 11 hurricanes.
- The University of Pennsylvania predicts 27 to 39 tropical storms, with a best guess of 33, which would exceed the record of 30 set in 2020.
In a normal year, there are 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
Are seasonal hurricane forecasts accurate?
Colorado State University publishes verification statistics on its website. “CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown considerable improvement in recent years,” it states.
The forecasting group at the University of Pennsylvania captured the number of tropical storms within the predicted range in nine of the 15 forecasts since 2009. Its group was the only one that came close (forecasting up to 24 named storms) to predicting the record season of 2020.
The ocean waters
The ocean waters in the Atlantic are warmer than ever at this time of year, fueled by El Niño and human-caused climate changes. The average sea surface temperature, near 80 degrees, is more typical of August than early June. Scientists expect ocean surface temperatures to remain above normal throughout the hurricane season, which officially ends in late November.
The names of the storms for 2024
- Alberto
- Beryl
- Chris
- Debby
- Ernesto
- Francine
- Gordon
- Helene
- Isaac
- Joyce
- Kirk
- Leslie
- Milton
- Nadine
- Oscar
- Patty
- Rafael
- Sara
- Tony
- Valerie
- William
Source: The Washington Post and The National Hurricane Center