Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is advancing his plans to take control of Essequibo, the oil-rich region controlled by neighboring Guyana.
He has ordered his country’s oil company to issue extraction licenses in the area and proposed that the National Assembly approve a bill making the area part of Venezuela.
Guyana has placed its defense forces on high alert in response.
Venezuelan voters approved a referendum claiming rights over Essequibo on Sunday (3), which has heightened tensions. Although only two million people voted – representing about 10% of eligible voters – Venezuela’s claim over Essequibo enjoys broad support in the country.
In a Facebook speech criticizing Maduro’s “mistakes,” Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali stated that he is asking the UN Security Council to consider intervention.
“This is a direct threat to the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and political independence of Guyana,” he said. “Guyana sees this as an imminent threat… and will intensify precautionary measures to safeguard its territory.”
He also sought to reassure the country’s investors – mainly oil companies – that their money is safe.
Venezuela has long claimed that the 1899 decision to grant the 159,500 km2 region to the United Kingdom was unjust.
The matter is currently before the International Court of Justice, although Venezuela claims that the court has no authority to decide on the issue. The court has warned Venezuela not to take any action that could alter the status quo in Essequibo.
Essequibo has been under the authority of Guyana – and before that British Guiana – for over a century, but Venezuela has long sought to control it.
The discovery of oil in the waters off Essequibo in 2015 helped ignite the current dispute. Tensions further escalated in September of this year when Guyana held an auction for exploration licenses in those waters.
Guyana’s wealth is primarily based on oil production and export, making its economy one of the fastest-growing in the world in recent years.
Venezuela, on the other hand, is trying to emerge from an economic crisis, exacerbated by US sanctions imposed on its oil sales during Maduro’s election in 2018. The country has the largest proven oil reserves in the world.
And what is Brazil’s position in this story?
Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira stated that Brazil seeks a diplomatic and peaceful solution to the controversy.
“Brazil has made an exhortation, like all other countries, for understanding, for diplomatic discussion, and for the peaceful resolution of disputes. I had the opportunity to say, regarding the comments from both countries, that Brazil encourages, like all other countries in the region, that disputes be resolved through negotiations, understandings, arbitration, or recourse to international courts like The Hague,” said the Brazilian chancellor.
In any case, the Brazilian Army will send 28 armored vehicles to the region. The objective, according to a military source, is to prevent the conflict from reaching Brazil. Any potential Venezuelan incursion into Guyana by land would necessarily have to pass through Brazil, which borders both countries.
And the United States?
But the biggest obstacle to a Venezuelan incursion will not be the Brazilian army, but rather the presence of the American company Exxon Mobil in the region, exploring oil. A Venezuelan invasion would ultimately provoke a reaction from the US government.
for reserves of 11 billion barrels of oil, which could place small Guyana among the top twenty oil producers in the world.
The discovery of oil has propelled Guyana into an economic leap in the last three years, as oil began to be explored and sold in earnest. The country grew by 62% in 2022, an unprecedented rate in global statistics. This year, local GDP growth could reach 37%.
Sources: BBC, Agência Brasil, and G1