Heat is currently responsible for about 1 in every 100 deaths in Latin America, and this number could more than double in 20 years, considering the normal pace of population aging and moderate global warming scenarios, between 1°C and 3°C increase for the period 2045-2054. The conclusion comes from a scenario analysis conducted in 326 cities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, and Peru by a network of researchers.
Currently estimated at 0.87% of the total, heat-related deaths could reach 2.06% in the worst-case scenario.
“Elderly people and the poorest are the ones who suffer the most. Those who live in peripheral areas, in precarious housing and without access to air conditioning or green spaces will have more difficulty facing increasingly intense heat waves. Deaths are just the tip of the iceberg. Extreme heat increases the risk of heart attacks, heart failure, and other complications, especially in people with chronic diseases,” explains Nelson Gouveia, professor at the Department of Preventive Medicine at the University of São Paulo School of Medicine (FMUSP), one of the study’s authors.
In Brazil, the analysis considered data from the Mortality Information System (SIM), DataSUS, and the Demographic Census from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Just like in the other Latin American countries analyzed, deaths caused by weather events involving extreme temperatures are expected to increase considerably, both for heat and cold situations. A decisive factor is the increase in the population over 65 years in the estimated decade (2045-2054), which increases the population most affected by these conditions.
The researchers also concluded that it is possible to prevent a considerable portion of these deaths provided that the construction and application of climate adaptation policies aimed at growing populations vulnerable to extreme temperatures begin, such as action plans for intense heat periods and urban adaptations to reduce exposure to high temperatures and mitigate their health effects, in an accessible way for the elderly and people with disabilities.
Other measures pointed out as effective include the adoption of early warning systems, with clear and accessible communication to the population, the expansion of green areas and creation of urban ventilation corridors to reduce heat islands, community education on the risks of high temperatures and forms of individual and collective protection, as well as the adoption of public health protocols for priority care for elderly people and those with chronic diseases, as already implemented in Rio de Janeiro.
The study is part of the Climate Change and Urban Health in Latin America project (Salurbal-Clima) and brings together researchers from institutions in nine Latin American countries and the United States. With a duration of five years (2023-2028), Salurbal seeks evidence linking climate change to health impacts in the region.
Source: Agência Brasil