Consumer inflation in the United States recorded a smaller-than-expected advance in January, indicating some moderation in prices, although core inflation proved more resistant at the start of the year, a scenario that may reinforce the Federal Reserve’s strategy of keeping interest rates unchanged for longer. The reading comes amid signs of stability in the labor market and price adjustments promoted by companies at the beginning of 2026, reports the Reuters agency.
According to data released this Friday (13) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month, after advancing 0.3% in December. The result came in below the projection of economists surveyed by Reuters, who expected a 0.3% increase.
The January report also brought methodological changes: the government recalculated seasonal adjustment factors to more accurately reflect price movements observed throughout 2025. The release of the data was slightly delayed due to a three-day federal government shutdown that occurred the previous week.
Analysts had been closely watching for possible distortions caused by previous shutdowns. Last year, a longer interruption in government activities even prevented price collection in October, generating strong volatility in economic indicators. The expectation, according to economists, was that this instability would be reduced in the January report.
On a 12-month accumulated basis through January, the CPI recorded a 2.4% rise, slowing from the 2.7% annual advance seen in December. According to the report, this reduction in the annual rate was mainly influenced by the exit of higher readings from last year from the comparison base.
Despite the punctual improvement, inflation remains above the level considered ideal by monetary authorities. The Federal Reserve tracks the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) index as its main reference to pursue its 2% inflation target. Both the CPI and PCE remain above this target, keeping market attention focused on the central bank’s next steps.
The economic environment has also been influenced by employment trends. The U.S. government reported this week that job creation accelerated in January and that the unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in December to 4.3%, signaling that the labor market remains relatively hot.
In this scenario, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range last month, reinforcing the signal of caution in the face of inflation that remains resistant, even with signs of slowdown in some indicators.
Looking at so-called core inflation—which excludes more volatile items like food and energy—the CPI advanced 0.3% in January, after rising 0.2% in December. On a 12-month basis, core rose 2.5%, slightly below the 2.6% recorded in the previous month, also influenced by the exit of higher readings from last year.
According to the report’s analysis, the core increase in the month may have reflected typical early-year one-off adjustments, as well as the pass-through of tariffs implemented by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, a factor that may have contributed to price pressure in certain sectors of the economy.
The behavior of inflation, combined with employment stability, strengthens the perception that the Federal Reserve may sustain interest rates at the current level for longer, while monitoring whether the slowdown observed in the headline index will be sufficient to curb persistent inflationary pressures in underlying components.
Source: brasil247.com