Those who follow the American elections know that the so-called ‘Swing States’ – those that sometimes vote for Republicans and sometimes vote for Democrats – are the ones that truly decide who will occupy the White House for the next four years.
A recent analysis of voting intentions in these states showed that Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, currently has a slight advantage over Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate.
According to polls, at the end of August, when she took over the Democratic ticket, Vice President Harris had a strong lead in three of the seven states considered ‘toss-ups’ in this race. Now, Trump has taken the lead in all seven undecided states for the first time since Harris entered the race.
Polls from the last few weeks have shifted in Trump’s direction, and the advantages that Harris had in the most competitive and critical states have largely evaporated. However, everything is still within the margin of error, and the numbers are incredibly close — only 0.34 percentage points separate Trump and Harris. But the consistency of the shift — and the fact that everything is moving in Trump’s direction — worries Democrats.
In 2016 and 2020, polls exaggerated the position of Democrats. Although Biden won in 2020, the polls placed him ahead in undecided states much more than the final result showed.
Considering that all these races are within the margins of error, the presidential race remains quite uncertain, and mobilizing key voting groups is the most important thing at this moment for both sides, as early voting has already begun in some states.
The seven ‘swing states’ are: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Source: NPR