National polls for the U.S. presidential race show that Kamala Harris has gained about three points for the Democrats since she became the nominee, following President Biden’s withdrawal.
However, according to an analysis by The Guardian, when comparing this performance to previous elections, data from RealClearPolitics reveals that Harris’s lead over Trump is weaker than that of her predecessors. On August 30, during their respective campaigns, Hillary Clinton led Trump by five points in 2016, and Biden was ahead of him by 6.3 points in 2020.
But national polls are only part of the story. Clinton lost the 2016 election despite receiving more votes than Trump, due to the American electoral system.
The U.S. presidential election is decided by individual contests in the states. This means that the race is effectively decided by a few swing states, such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia.
Looking at the data from RealClearPolitics, The Guardian found that Harris has at least managed to narrow the gap, if not surpass, Trump in some swing states. This is especially evident in Georgia and Arizona, where Harris has gained over four points since Biden dropped out of the race.
Researchers point to Harris’s gains particularly among voters of color and young people, who had distanced themselves from the party in recent months with Biden as the likely Democratic candidate, as the main reason Democrats have brought these states back into play.
Being ahead of Trump by a few points nationally is not enough to give Harris a secure lead in any of the swing states. Trump and Harris are still within two points of each other in seven swing states—well within the margin of error of the polls.
And it’s worth remembering. Previous errors in pre-election polling have given erroneous advantages to Democrats. Trump outperformed the polls in both 2016 and 2020. There are several reasons for this: many people decided late on who to vote for; many Trump voters did not tell polling companies who they were supporting; and methodological errors led to a fundamental underestimation of support for Trump.
So, more than ever, these elections promise many surprises.
Source: The Guardian