Amid a global trade war, canceled visas, and tourists detained at the border, the signals from the United States have been anything but inviting to potential visitors.
Many media outlets reported extraordinary drops in the number of international visitors during the new Trump administration, especially from Europe.
But, despite some worrying signs, a closer analysis of the data shows that travel to the United States is holding up largely — at least for now.
Almost the same number of foreign travelers arrived at American airports this year as in the same period last year, according to an analysis by The New York Times using entry data collected at all the country’s international airports.
International arrivals fell more than 10% in March compared to last year, but this is mainly due to Easter falling exceptionally late this year, delaying a popular travel window for European tourists. More recent data from April shows that travel during the holiday was similar to previous years.
Visitors have also not stopped booking summer vacations in the United States, with one big exception.
Canadians, irritated by American tariffs and Trump administration speculation about turning the country into a 51st state, appear to be boycotting the United States. Air ticket sales for summer trips, a crucial season for the industry, fell 21% compared to last year.
The decline in the number of Canadian travelers, who account for about a quarter of all foreign visitors, is enough on its own to threaten tourism-oriented businesses in Florida, New York, Maine, and other popular destinations.
But air ticket sales for summer from the rest of the world fell only 2% compared to the same period last year, according to data on the 25 most popular routes from the Airlines Reporting Corporation, whose data covers about two-thirds of global air ticket sales.
But any drop is concerning for the travel industry, and the situation could worsen if economies are further weakened by the trade war or if anti-American sentiment increases. There is extraordinary uncertainty among travel analysts about whether visitors will continue to arrive in similar numbers — and if so, for how long.
Part of the explanation for the arrival numbers being relatively stable so far may lie in the nature of the travel industry. Many international trips are booked months in advance and can be difficult to cancel, so even a traveler who feels uncomfortable with U.S. policies may end up boarding a plane to the country.
Source: The New York Times