For more than 15 months, he promised to build a wall between Mexico and the United States and deport millions of undocumented immigrants. Now, as the president-elect, Donald Trump is still formulating his government plan and leaving immigrants and a large part of American voters anxious about the extent to which he will fulfill his campaign promises.
The United States is a country with very strong and independent institutions. The three branches of government are also quite independent and truly work to balance the system. That is, the president does not govern alone! To implement many of his promises, Trump will need the approval of Congress. It is worth remembering that, although he was elected as the candidate of the Republican Party, he is not a “card-carrying” Republican. He knew that an independent candidacy would not bring him much support. Trump is not well regarded by many within the Republican Party, and gaining the majority’s support to implement unpopular measures will not be easy at all.
For example, to build the wall that served as the backbone of his campaign, he will need a lot of money. This funding has to be released by Congress. But the approval will depend on several other measures.
Trump is promising to reduce taxes. Taxes constitute the government’s salary. If the government reduces its own salary and does not cut its expenses, its debt will surely increase. Given the possibility of having to cut spending or at least try not to significantly increase the government debt, will Congress approve the release of so much money for the construction of a wall that will most likely not solve the problem of illegal immigration in the country?
On the other hand, the deportation of undocumented immigrants is decided by the executive branch. President Obama during his first term deported around 400,000 immigrants annually. In his second term, he reduced deportations to less than 200,000 annually. So many people were sent away that Obama was even called by Latino activists the “Deporter-in-Chief.”
Trump will likely not be able to deport much more than that. The government does not have the money, detention centers, or enough agents to detain so many people. The president-elect announced that the initial plan is to deport immigrants with criminal backgrounds. According to his own estimates, there are between 2 and 3 million immigrants in this group. This means that, having the capacity to deport about 400,000 people per year, Trump will need at least 5 years to meet his goal.
Now imagine deporting 11 million people, the estimated number of undocumented individuals in the country. It seems impractical! However, we must take into account that Trump can take various measures to make life difficult for undocumented immigrants, thus causing many to leave on their own.
Moreover, even if they are not targets for deportation, immigrants fear remaining on the margins, as the possibility of immigration reform with a path to legalization and subsequent citizenship is not on the new government and Republican Congress’s list of priorities.
While the new president has not taken office, everything will be mere speculation. The best course of action is to stay informed and not take any hasty actions.