Brazilian economic activity exceeds expectations.
The financial market’s forecast for the growth of the Brazilian economy this year has risen for the sixth consecutive time, increasing from 1.84% to 2.14%.
The forecast for the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) – considered the official inflation rate of the country – is also declining, dropping from 5.42% to 5.12% this year. For 2024, the inflation estimate remains at 4%. For 2025 and 2026, the forecasts are 3.8% for both years.
For interest rates, the expectation is that the Selic will end 2023 at 12.25% per year. By the end of 2024, the estimate is that the basic rate will fall to 9.5% per year. For the end of 2025 and 2026, the forecast is for the Selic to be at 9% per year and 8.75% per year, respectively.
In other words, with this optimistic scenario, the value of the dollar against the real has been falling since the beginning of the year. It has already accumulated a decline of 10.78% since January. This Monday (19), the exchange rate fell below R$4.80, the lowest value since June of last year.
Will it continue to fall?
For the Central Bank, the answer is no. According to the institution’s publication, the currency is expected to close 2023 quoted at R$5.00.
However, some specialists in the financial sector are more optimistic. Goldman Sachs, for example, believes that the exchange rate could reach R$4.30.
What could cause the currency to continue falling?
The economy of the United States could contribute to this or not. If interest rates in the land of Uncle Sam stop rising, investors may take dollars out of there and put them in Brazil. With a greater influx of dollars (increase in supply), the price has fallen.
Additionally, there is an increase in foreign trade with the intensification of negotiations with the Chinese market. The more products China buys from Brazil, the more dollars will enter, and the lower the exchange rate will be.
For those in Brazil who wish to visit the United States, this is undoubtedly a good time to make the purchase.
Source: Agência Brasil and UOL