Since the 1920s, the United States has heavily restricted legal immigration. This limitation has led to high levels of illegal immigration and a historic backlog of green card applications that can take years to process.
According to a study by the Cato Institute, only about 3% of people who submitted green card applications will receive permanent status in the United States in fiscal year (FY) 2024. At the beginning of this fiscal year, approximately 34.7 million applications were pending – up from about 10 million in 1996. Legal immigration limits plus unlimited categories allow for only about 1.1 million green cards for FY 2024, meaning that 97% of green card applicants will not receive one this year.
By far, the largest number of applicants appears annually in the green card lottery category, with nearly 22.2 million applicants in 2023 (for the FY 2024 lottery). The lottery cap for FY 2024 will be around 55,000 permanent visas. This lottery cap was established in the Immigration Act of 1990 and has never been expanded, despite a nearly fivefold increase in demand. The approval rate in the lottery has dropped about 80% since 1995, when the first lottery was held, to about 0.25% – a one in 400 chance of receiving a green card.
In the family category, the cap is set at 226,000 visas for non-immediate relatives. Immediate relatives (spouses, minor children, and parents) face no visa cap, but due to burdensome procedures, the government still cannot process all immediate relative applications submitted each year, leading to a processing backlog for these applicants as well. There are about 8.3 million people in these categories. Only 8% of them will receive a green card in 2024.
The employment-based category grew to 1.8 million in March 2023. The total cap is set at 140,000 visas per year. In FY 2024, about 8% of pending employment-based applications will be approved for a green card.
Nearly 1.8 million immigrants have applied for asylum and have pending cases. Unlike other categories, there is no visa cap for asylum, but the government processes fewer applications than it receives, causing delays. Additionally, unlike other categories where the vast majority of applicants are approved, most asylum applicants are denied. Only 3% of asylum applicants will receive the document in 2023, about 9% will have their application denied, and the rest will continue to wait.
Source: Cato Institute