As the first presidential debate between Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, and Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, approaches for the elections on November 6 in the United States (to be held this Tuesday, the 10th), polls show a technical tie between the two candidates.
However, there is one prediction that should be taken into account. That of an American historian who correctly predicted the outcome of 9 of the last 10 presidential elections.
Allan Lichtman made his guess about who will reclaim the White House this year. According to him, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Lichtman stated in a video, first reported by The New York Times, that he based his prediction on thirteen keys or “general true or false questions that explore the strength and performance of the party in the White House.”
Who is Allan Lichtman?
Before receiving the title of “Distinguished Professor” from American University in Washington, D.C., Lichtman earned a Ph.D. specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods at Harvard.
In addition to lecturing in the U.S. and around the world, Lichtman is the author of 13 books and hundreds of academic articles. He has also been an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases.
He routinely provides political commentary and is best known for his accurate electoral predictions.
What are the 13 keys the professor relies on to make his predictions?
• The party in the White House gained seats in the House during the midterm elections.
• The incumbent president is running for reelection.
• The party in the White House is avoiding a primary contest.
• There is a third challenger.
• The short-term economy is strong.
• Long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
• The party in the White House has made major changes in national policy.
• There is sustained social unrest during the term.
• The White House is not tainted by scandals, the ruling party is charismatic.
• The challenger is not charismatic.
• The incumbent is charismatic.
• The party in the White House has a major foreign policy failure.
• The party in the White House is successful in foreign policy.
Eight of the keys favor Harris, while three favor Trump.
“Foreign policy is complicated, and these keys can flip,” he said in the video. “The Biden administration is deeply involved in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys were false, that would mean there would only be five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to reclaim the White House.”
This leaves Harris winning the White House, he said. “At least that is my prediction for this race, but the outcome depends on you, so get out and vote.”
Source: USA Today