Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are tied in the popular vote, 48% to 48%, according to the final national poll from The New York Times and Siena College, showing that American voters appear steadfastly divided.
The poll results, coming just over a week before Election Day (November 5), are not encouraging for Harris. In recent elections, Democrats have had an advantage in the popular vote even while losing the Electoral College and thus the White House.
Harris’s position may have declined among likely voters since the last Times/Siena College poll conducted in early October. At that time, she had a slight edge over Trump, 49% to 46%. The change is within the margin of error, but The Times’ national polling average has also recorded a tightening in the polls in recent weeks, suggesting at least that this race has become even more competitive.
While the popular vote serves as a thermometer, the presidential election will be decided in the seven battleground states where Harris and Trump dedicate most of their time and resources. Most polls in these states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin — suggest that the race is equally tight.
Ongoing Voting
American elections can be conducted early by mail, which has been happening in several states for some time.
The poll found that the 9% of Americans who have already voted leaned heavily toward Harris, 59% to 40%. This is consistent with the advantage that Democrats historically have in early voting and mail-in voting, although there are signs this year that Republicans, unlike in 2020, are voting early in larger numbers.
In other words, if you enjoy politics, especially elections, you won’t want to miss this contest that promises to be so significant for the United States.
Source: The New York Times