When Donald J. Trump won the presidency eight years ago, it was easy to classify his victory as a “fluke,” an “exception,” a lapse in American political history.
But not this time.
Despite January 6, the end of Roe v. Wade, and a felony conviction, Trump achieved a clear and convincing victory. By Wednesday afternoon (6), the counts showed he was on track to win all seven battleground states. He made gains in every corner of the country and with nearly every demographic group.
Trump is also on his way to becoming the first Republican to win the national popular vote in the last 20 years.
Everyone knows Trump is not an ordinary candidate. Therefore, his victory says much more than it normally would about the United States today. A convicted criminal who tried to overturn an election would typically not be considered viable in an American presidential election. But Trump is not just viable — he is compelling.
On the other hand, the Democrats were not in a strong position to win this election. No party has ever held the White House when the president’s approval rating was as low as it is today and when so many Americans felt the country was on the wrong track. Signs that voters were in a bad mood towards the Democrats were everywhere.
And signs of Republican strength were also widespread. Not only did Trump lead Biden in early polls, even with criminal charges piling up against him, but polls also showed Republicans surpassing Democrats in party identification for the first time in two decades. Republican voter registration numbers increased. Trump was even winning among young, Black, and Hispanic voters — groups historically assumed to be anti-Trump.
Trump’s triumph is not “an American thing.” His victory occurs in a context of political upheaval around the world. In the wake of the pandemic and rising prices, voters in one country after another, election after election, have been voting against the party in power. More broadly, the last two decades have seen the rise of right-wing populist parties and a corresponding decline in center-left strength among working-class voters, in particular.
A reaction to the changes brought about by the advent of the internet and globalization? Perhaps. What matters is that these elections left a clear message that a lot, a lot of people are dissatisfied.
And the biggest proof of this is in the “blue states.” Trump made significant gains in New York City, where he improved his margin from 2020 by more than 10 points. On Wednesday morning, Kamala Harris was on track to win New Jersey, a traditional Democratic state, by just five points.
The return of Donald Trump clearly signals a different kind of country. For better or for worse? History will tell.
Source: The New York Times