President Trump stated on Thursday (October 30) that the US would resume testing nuclear weapons for the first time in decades.
“We stopped many years ago, but with other countries conducting tests, I think it’s appropriate to do so,” the president told reporters aboard Air Force One.
Experts say resuming tests would represent a major escalation and could destabilize the nuclear balance of power.
“I think a decision to resume nuclear tests would be extremely dangerous and would benefit our adversaries more than the United States,” said Corey Hinderstein, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
See what a test would involve and why the president might be advocating for one now.
Currently, there is only one place where the United States could test a nuclear weapon—near Las Vegas, Nevada. The Nevada National Security Site, located about 96 kilometers northwest of Las Vegas, is currently the only place where the United States could test a nuclear weapon, says Robert Peters, senior researcher on strategic deterrence at the Heritage Foundation.
The Nevada site covers about 3,370 square kilometers, an area larger than the state of Rhode Island. Starting in the 1950s, scientists conducted atmospheric nuclear tests at the site, but from 1962 to 1992, tests were conducted underground.
Today, tests would likely be conducted in “a complex of deep underground mine shafts,” Peters said.
Scientists dig a deep shaft directly below the surface or on the side of a mountain. They then place a nuclear device in a chamber at the bottom of the shaft and seal it. The detonation is contained by the rock, reducing the risk of radioactive fallout in the atmosphere.
While underground tests are much safer than atmospheric tests, they still pose risks, Hinderstein said. In the past, there have been leaks of radioactive material from test shafts. In addition, the test could shake buildings even in Las Vegas, and Hinderstein said some of Las Vegas’s newer buildings could even suffer damage.
“All those big skyscrapers—including the Stratosphere, including the Trump Hotel,” she said. “They weren’t designed to withstand massive and significant seismic activity.”
The last U.S. nuclear test in Nevada took place more than 30 years ago.
At the end of the Cold War, the major nuclear powers declared a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing. Russia, then the Soviet Union, tested its last nuclear weapon in 1990, the U.S. conducted its last test in 1992, and China conducted its last test in 1996.
The voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing remains in effect as part of an effort to maintain nuclear stability. The U.S. currently uses scientific experiments and supercomputer simulations to ensure its bombs still work.
Last year, NPR was one of the few organizations to receive exclusive access to the ultra-secret underground tunnels where the tests were conducted. Scientists working in the tunnels said they were confident they could continue certifying the safety of U.S. nuclear weapons without the need for tests.
While a full-scale nuclear detonation would be “complementary” to current experiments, “our assessment is that there are no systemic issues that would be addressed by a test that would justify the cost, effort, and time,” Don Haynes, a nuclear weapons scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, told NPR as they walked through the tunnels.
In fact, Hinderstein says preparing a nuclear test is no easy task. While a basic demonstration test could be conducted in about 18 months, conducting a test that produced scientifically useful data would likely take years.
Trump’s announcement is likely a reaction to some recent tests conducted by Russia. On Sunday, Russia announced it had successfully tested a new nuclear-powered cruise missile. On Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin announced the successful test of another apocalyptic weapon—a nuclear-powered underwater drone that Russia claims could be used to attack coastal cities.
Trump never mentioned Russia by name but suggested the recent tests prompted the announcement. “I see them testing,” he said aboard Air Force One, “and I think: ‘Well, if they’re going to test, I think we have to test too.’”
While testing nuclear-powered weapons is not the same as testing nuclear weapons themselves, Russia’s tests are highly provocative. They come just months before the expiration of the last nuclear treaty between the U.S. and Russia, created to limit their arsenals.
This war of words has all the hallmarks of the start of an arms race, observed Jon Wolfsthal, director of global risk at the Federation of American Scientists.
“We’ve seen this happen throughout the Cold War through nuclear tests, nuclear facilities, and nuclear investments,” he said.
Many experts warn that now is not the time to resume nuclear testing. Hinderstein, who served as deputy administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the agency responsible for U.S. nuclear weapons, from 2021 to 2024, said a decision to resume testing would not be in the United States’ interest.
At the end of the Cold War, the U.S. had conducted more than a thousand nuclear tests—far more than any other nation (China, by comparison, conducted only 45).
Other nations “have more to gain from resuming nuclear tests than the United States,” she said.
The tests would likely be expensive, adds Paul Dean, vice president for global nuclear policy at the Nuclear Threat Initiative. “Cost estimates I’ve seen are around $140 million per test,” he said.
“It’s not necessary to conduct a nuclear explosive test right now,” agreed Robert Peters of the Heritage Foundation. But he added, “There will certainly be compelling reasons to conduct tests in the coming months and years. The situation is getting very serious.”
Source: npr.org by Geoff Brumfiel