With winter weather and crowded airports, traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday can already be stressful. Now, add to that the possibility of the government shutdown extending until then.
Tens of thousands of air traffic controllers and TSA agents have been forced to work without pay. Recently, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reported observing an increase in employee absenteeism, which forced it to reduce the number of flights to maintain safety.
Delays related to staffing issues have occurred at airports across the country in recent weeks, including Orlando, Los Angeles, Houston, and New York. So far, most of these disruptions have been short-lived, but the Trump administration warned that the situation could worsen significantly during the year-end holiday period if the government remains shut down.
On Wednesday (5), Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy stated that air traffic will be reduced by 10% in 40 locations starting Friday due to staffing disruptions.
“I foresee there will be more disruptions and frustration,” he said. “But, in the end, our only role is to ensure we keep this airspace as safe as possible.”
Aviation and travel experts also expect more delays and cancellations, as well as longer TSA lines, if the shutdown does not end before Thanksgiving Day.
“This means that during one of the busiest times of the year, a lot of people will be stuck somewhere,” said William J. McGee, senior aviation and travel researcher at the American Economic Liberties Project, an antitrust group.
See how the shutdown could affect your holiday plans and whether you should travel or not.
What will air travel be like during the Thanksgiving weekend if the shutdown continues? Thanksgiving Day—and the days around it—are among the busiest periods for air travel. Last year, the Sunday after Thanksgiving set a record, with nearly 3.09 million passengers screened by the TSA.
The last government shutdown also extended into a holiday period, but Philip Mann, an aviation expert at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, said a key difference was that last year, the government shutdown lasted more than a year. In 2018, the shutdown began just days before Christmas.
“People didn’t miss an entire paycheck,” he said.
This year, when Thanksgiving arrives, air traffic controllers and TSA agents will have been forced to work without pay for more than eight weeks. If that’s the case, Mann predicts more employees will call out due to fatigue and financial stress, causing more delays and cancellations.
Part of the problem is that travel disruptions don’t happen in isolation, according to McGee of the American Economic Liberties Project. Instead, they usually create a domino effect, impacting other flights and airports.
“Delays and cancellations generate more delays and cancellations,” he said.
What if the shutdown ends before then?
Aviation experts say travel disruptions will likely remain a concern if the federal government reopens very close to Thanksgiving Day.
McGee said flight operations need time to stabilize if they suffer a series of delays. That’s because flights currently tend to operate near maximum capacity. This results in fewer seats available for passengers who need to rebook their tickets.
“That’s why we have crises that last not just a few hours, but sometimes a week,” he said.
Another reason is that staffing shortages may persist after the shutdown, as some air traffic controllers will need additional training before returning to work, according to Mann.
“One of the most important tasks they perform constantly is training and updating on policies,” he said.
Mann added that the smoothness of year-end travel will also depend on how well airports and airlines plan ahead.
Should you travel or not this Thanksgiving?
The Thanksgiving weekend is usually one of the busiest periods at airports because travel is concentrated in just a few days—unlike December or summer, when vacations can be spread throughout the year.
This also means that delays during the Thanksgiving weekend can jeopardize an already short trip. Despite the risk, Katy Nastro, travel expert at the Going flight deals app, said she encourages people to stick to their travel plans.
“I would still say that I’m cautiously optimistic that you should still buy your airline tickets,” she said.
Nastro’s advice is not to wait for the federal government to reopen to book a flight. Instead, she recommended choosing tickets that offer flight credits in case plans need to change. She also suggested opting for a direct flight and early morning departures.
Mann said travelers should also allow enough time for security checks, especially if the shutdown lasts until Thanksgiving.
Although travel disruptions remain a concern, Mann said that ultimately, it’s a good sign that the FAA is reducing flights in response to staffing shortages, as it means the agency is prioritizing safety.
“Flying will continue to be safe,” he said. “It may just become increasingly inconvenient.”
Source: npr.org by Juliana Kim