US consumer inflation rose less than expected in January, indicating some moderation in prices, although core inflation proved more resistant at the start of the year, a scenario that may reinforce the Federal Reserve’s strategy of keeping interest rates unchanged for longer. This reading comes amid signs of stability in the labor market and price adjustments by companies in early 2026, Reuters reports.
According to data released on Friday (13) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month, after advancing 0.3% in December. The result was below the projection of economists surveyed by Reuters, who expected a 0.3% increase.
The January report also included methodological changes: the government recalculated seasonal adjustment factors to more accurately reflect price movements observed throughout 2025. The data release was slightly delayed due to a three-day federal government shutdown the previous week.
Analysts had been closely monitoring potential distortions caused by prior shutdowns. Last year, a longer government activity interruption even prevented price collection in October, generating strong volatility in economic indicators. Economists expected this instability to be reduced in the January report.
Over the 12 months ended in January, the CPI recorded a 2.4% increase, slowing from the 2.7% annual rise seen in December. According to the report, this reduction in the annual rate was mainly influenced by the exclusion of higher readings from the previous year in the comparison base.
Despite the slight improvement, inflation remains above the level considered ideal by monetary authorities. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) index as its main reference to pursue its 2% inflation target. Both the CPI and PCE remain above this target, keeping market attention focused on the central bank’s next steps.
The economic environment has also been influenced by employment trends. The US government reported this week that job creation accelerated in January and the unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in December to 4.3%, signaling that the labor market remains relatively strong.
In this scenario, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range last month, reinforcing its cautious stance in the face of inflation that remains resistant, even with signs of slowdown in some indicators.
Looking at what is called core inflation — which excludes more volatile items like food and energy —, the CPI advanced 0.3% in January, after rising 0.2% in December. Over the last 12 months, the core inflation rate increased 2.5%, slightly below the 2.6% recorded in the previous month, also influenced by the exclusion of higher readings from last year.
According to the report’s analysis, the rise in core inflation during the month may have reflected typical early-year one-off adjustments, as well as the pass-through of tariffs implemented by US President Donald Trump, a factor that may have contributed to price pressure in certain sectors of the economy.
The behavior of inflation, combined with employment stability, strengthens the perception that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates at current levels for longer, while monitoring whether the slowdown observed in the overall rate will be sufficient to contain persistent inflation in underlying components.
Source: brasil247.com