The scarcity of natural resources is a megatrend in itself with significant effects that impact everyone. The use of natural resources in a poorly planned and less responsible manner results in a lack of raw materials for essential items, creating competitive advantages for countries that possess these raw materials. Recycling is the most indicated path at the moment. The path of oil is the same as that of most commodities. The same goes for iron and water. Iron and most minerals come from reserves that are pressured by the accelerated growth of the construction industry and other consumption in the transformation sector.
Water, in turn, does not undergo transformation, or undergoes it in insignificant quantities, but becomes unsuitable for a range of uses. Thus, the problem is directly related to how much of this water is potable or suitable for different uses. With food, it is different, as the growth of the economy and the living conditions of large populations previously excluded from the consumption cycle create pressure for products containing carbohydrates, proteins, and other food chains, exceeding the production capacity of the areas considered traditional for cultivation.
This megatrend generates more effects in Brazil from the following point: since the 1990s, the share of commodities in Brazilian exports has fluctuated around 40%. Between 2007 and 2010, this share jumped by 10 percentage points, reaching 51% of Brazilian exports. Unfortunately, the increase in volume has not been matched by diversification in the productive sector. Iron ore, meat, soybeans, sugar, energy in its various forms (hydraulic, wind, hydrocarbons, etc.), and clean potable water are some of the raw materials or factors of production that are highly consumed worldwide.
The demand for products that Brazil possesses, for example, is guaranteed for a good period. How long this period is difficult to say, but the next decade seems to offer an increasing certainty regarding demand, or at least that is how analysts and economists understand it. This alone guarantees good revenue for the country. We can replace all raw materials, one way or another, but the problem will always lie in the cost of doing so. The consumption time is infinitely greater than the natural reproduction time.
Source: Flávio Ítavo and Clozel Comunicação