In the U.S., The Future of the Automotive Industry Is Electric

The Biden administration announced on Wednesday (20) a new regulation that limits car exhaust emissions, charting a path away from the combustion engine and towards a future with electric and hybrid cars.What do you need to know about this measure?1. It’s a big step in the fight against climate changeIn terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, this regulation does more than any other climate rule issued by the federal government and more than any measures planned for the rest of Biden’s first term.Transportation is the largest source of greenhouse gases generated by the United States. The new rule aims to eliminate more than seven billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere over the next 30 years, more than all the greenhouse gases produced by the entire U.S. economy in a year.As the United States is a huge car market, analysts predict that companies manufacturing greener cars in the U.S. will start selling them in the global market as other governments adopt similar standards.2. The rule is not a ban on gasoline-powered vehiclesThe rule does not require the sale of only electric vehicles, and consumers can still buy and drive gasoline-powered cars. Instead, the regulation requires automakers to meet new average emissions limits across all their product lines; it is up to manufacturers to decide how to comply with these limits.According to the law, the Environmental Protection Agency will be able to limit pollution generated by the total number of cars each year. E.P.A. officials said that as long as automakers comply with the emissions rules, they can sell a mix of gasoline-powered cars, hybrids, EVs, or other types of vehicles, such as hydrogen-powered cars.The rule does not apply to the sale of used vehicles.3. The government will penalize automakers, not consumers, for non-complianceStarting in 2027, when the rule takes effect, automakers will report to the E.P.A. the average emissions associated with all passenger vehicles they sell. Emissions limits will start modestly and increase slowly in the first years of the program, sharply rising after 2030. Companies that do not meet the emissions limits will face fines that could reach billions of dollars.4. Success will depend on consumer behaviorHaving American roads filled with non-polluting vehicles hinges on a central question: will consumers buy electric cars? There was initial interest in electric cars, but sales have cooled, and automakers are concerned about the need for more time to develop the market. This is one of the reasons why the E.P.A. postponed stricter emissions requirements for car sales until after 2030, so manufacturers could improve designs and develop more affordable models, as well as build charging infrastructure.5. Trump could reverse the rule, but not quickly or easilyIf elected in November, Trump promised to “end” the climate rules of the Biden administration “on day one.” But now that the car rule is final, it will be more difficult and time-consuming, though not impossible, for a future administration to reverse it. And even if that were the case, the Clean Air Act requires that it be replaced by another rule that controls greenhouse gas pollution from vehicles.6. Fate likely to be decided by the Supreme CourtThe new rules are expected to face a legal challenge from a coalition of fossil fuel companies and Republican attorneys general, complaints that will likely reach the Supreme Court. The conservative 6-3 majority on the court has taken steps in recent years to limit the E.P.A.’s authority. In a 2022 decision regarding another major climate rule, the court drastically limited, but did not overturn, the agency’s authority to limit greenhouse gas pollution from power plants.Source: The New York Times