The first criminal trial of a sitting or former president of the United States is underway in Manhattan, renewing doubts about what a potential conviction would mean for former President Trump, the current Republican presidential candidate.
A conviction in New York, where Trump faces 34 criminal charges for falsifying business records, will not prevent him from participating in the presidential race. Legally, the former president – who has secured the delegates he needs for the Republican nomination – can still run for federal office even if the jury decides to convict him, experts say.
Politically, Trump has already convinced his voters that his legal troubles have political motivations. Thus, the trial and the final verdict are unlikely to change the opinions of 2024 voters.
In fact, Trump may today be the only person in the United States who could be convicted in all four cases currently against him and see his popularity rise among his base, as they are already convinced that their candidate is merely being persecuted.
However, among independent voters, the situation may be different.
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that an increasing share of independent voters believes that the business records falsification case involves a “serious crime” – 51% of all voters in the poll said Trump should not be allowed to serve again if convicted in that case, a number that included 16% of Republicans.
Another poll, released earlier this year by Bloomberg and Morning Consult, found that 53% of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for Trump if he were convicted of a crime, and that number rose to 55% if he were sentenced to prison.
It is true that, according to American laws, being convicted or even being in prison does not prevent a person from running for the presidency or even being elected, but at a time when politics is so polarized and voters so divided, being a candidate in the defendant’s chair, rather than on the campaign trail, will certainly put Trump at a disadvantage compared to Joe Biden.
Source: The Hill