Donald J. Trump has not spent much time on the campaign trail across the country. Instead, he is sitting on a defendant’s bench, being tried for possible falsifications of his companies’ records.
Even so, many voters seem unconcerned about the former president and current Republican candidate’s history. According to a new voting intention poll, he leads President Biden in five crucial states in the presidential elections.
The poll conducted by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Trump is ahead in a head-to-head matchup against Biden in five of the six key states (the so-called ‘swing states’): Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Biden leads among registered voters in only one key state, Wisconsin.
The findings have remained virtually unchanged since the last series of Times/Siena polls in key states last November. Since then, the stock market has gained 25%, Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan has begun, and Biden’s campaign has released tens of millions of dollars in advertising.
However, according to the poll, there are few signs that any of these events have helped Biden, harmed Trump, or quelled voter discontent. Instead, the polls show that the cost of living, immigration, the war in Israel and Gaza, and the desire for change continue to be obstacles to the president’s re-election. Although Biden benefited from a surge of momentum after his State of the Union address in March, he remains behind in the average of national and state polls.
The study reveals widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and serious doubts about Biden’s ability to bring about significant improvements to American life. Most voters still desire a return to the normalcy promised by Biden in the last campaign, but voters in key states remain particularly anxious, insecure, and eager for change. Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes—or even complete demolition.
Only a small portion of Biden’s supporters—just 13 percent—believe that the president can bring about significant changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Trump reluctantly acknowledge that he can disrupt an unsatisfactory status quo.
The sense that Biden will do little to improve the country’s fortunes helps undermine his position among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, who typically represent the base of any Democratic path to the presidency. The Times/Siena polls revealed that the three groups want fundamental changes in American society, not just a return to normalcy, and few believe that Biden is capable of making those changes, even if they are small.
With less than six months until the elections, there is still time for an improvement in the economy to help change Biden’s position. Historically, polls at this early stage have not necessarily been indicative of the outcome, and Trump’s advance among traditionally Democratic young, Black, and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation.
Source: The New York Times