After 13 months of war, Hezbollah entered into a ceasefire with Israel on Wednesday (27) that the group will struggle to convince anyone, other than its most fervent loyalists, that the decision is not in fact a defeat.
The 60-day truce, which is expected to lay the groundwork for a more lasting ceasefire, comes after three months of devastating Israeli attacks that left the organization in disarray.
Deep intelligence infiltration allowed Israel to assassinate many senior leaders of the group, including Hezbollah’s secretary-general for 32 years, Hassan Nasrallah. Israel bombed the group’s most loyal communities, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to flee and destroying dozens of villages, leaving many homeless and without a place to return to immediately.
And Hezbollah’s fateful decision not to consult anyone before firing rockets at Israel, igniting a conflict that became Lebanon’s deadliest war in decades, left it isolated in the country and in the Middle East in general, with Lebanon facing an exorbitant bill to rebuild.
Many of Hezbollah’s opponents in Lebanon and elsewhere hope that the war has weakened it enough that the group can no longer impose its will on the country’s political system.
Hezbollah still has thousands of fighters in Lebanon and counts on the loyalty of a large part of the country’s Shia Muslims.
After the ceasefire was established on Wednesday, thousands of them returned to the southern suburbs of Beirut to inspect the damage. Many honked their horns, waved Hezbollah’s yellow flags, and said that the fact that Hezbollah had survived already represented a victory.
The ceasefire is expected to be permanent
U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters on Tuesday (26) that the agreement was “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”
The 13-point agreement between the governments of Israel and Lebanon – and not Hezbollah – also states that both countries are “prepared to take steps to promote conditions for a permanent and comprehensive solution.”
The agreement states that the Lebanese government “will prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups on Lebanese territory from conducting any operations against Israel.”
Israel, meanwhile, “will not conduct any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military, or other state targets, on Lebanese territory.”
The U.S. and France will join the existing Tripartite Mechanism involving UNIFIL, the Israeli army, and the Lebanese army that was created to help reach agreements on contentious issues.
The ceasefire agreement states that the U.S. will preside over the “restructured and enhanced” mechanism, which “will monitor, verify, and assist in ensuring the implementation” of commitments from both sides.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel “will maintain total freedom of military action” in Lebanon “with full understanding from the United States.”
“If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to rebuild terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, digs a tunnel, or brings a truck carrying rockets, we will attack,” he stated.
Sources: The New York Times and BBC News