Global economic expansion has become less uniform, according to economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). Overall global growth is expected to reach 3.8 percent in 2018 and 2019, led by an acceleration driven by fiscal policies in U.S. GDP growth. However, most other advanced economies are likely to see slower growth than in 2017. Additionally, the risks of economic growth being derailed have increased in some emerging market countries with weak fundamentals and in the United Kingdom, where doubts about a smooth exit from the 
European Union have risen.
Analysts expect the global economy to grow by 3.8 percent by 2019, primarily driven by the United States, which is expected to achieve nearly 3 percent growth in 2018 and fall to 2.5 percent growth in 2019. Inflation is likely to modestly exceed the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent in 2019 and 2020, amid further tightening in the labor market, with unemployment expected to drop to 3.5 percent next year. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its gradual normalization of monetary policy with four interest rate hikes in 2018, three in 2019, and one in 2020, although interest rates are likely to remain low by historical standards.
But analysts warn that the outlook could be downgraded if a trade war spreads to financial markets, inflation rises more sharply than 
expected, or U.S. asset prices experience a significant decline.
The major economies of emerging markets are in precarious situations, with Argentina, Turkey, and Brazil being the most affected. The current account balances of Argentina and Turkey, reserves, exchange rates, and high levels of corporate debt leave both countries with little room for policies that could improve their economies and make them more vulnerable to economic shocks. Mexico’s economy remains strong, and the newly announced United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade alleviates concerns about investments in the coming months.